Harris’ VP pick shows ‘seriousness’ of her progressive agenda

Ciaran Jenkins: Tim Walz, first of all. He hunts, he wears camouflage hats, some say he’s got big dad energy. Is any of that going to help Kamala Harris win over the vital swing state voters?
Frank Luntz: It was an interesting choice because she could have had the governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, who is the most popular governor in America. It would have guaranteed that she would’ve won that state. Walz communicates that she’s serious about a progressive agenda, communicates that there is an ideological difference between Republicans and Democrats. But there’s no ideological difference on the Democratic side of things. I think that he’s a good campaigner. I think he’s got a powerful personality and he’s very well liked by his former House colleagues and his current gubernatorial colleagues.
Ciaran Jenkins: Kamala Harris’ campaign seems to be riding something of a wave, though, doesn’t it? Do you think this was ultimately a vibes pick? I mean, one of his lines last night to her was, ‘thank you for bringing back the joy’. Is that the contrast they’re trying to draw with Donald Trump and his ticket?
Frank Luntz: Absolutely. And I think it’s more than a wave. I think that this is the most significant launching of a campaign that I’ve seen in my professional life. You have to go back to 1940 to see an election where a candidate hits the stage and there’s this much enthusiasm and this much energy. Right now, the vice president Harris is actually the odds-on favourite to win. I know that a lot of my polling colleagues don’t agree with that. But she’s got momentum. She’s got passion. She’s got people who are not part of the political process coming back into the process, such as younger women or younger African-Americans. And she’s been on message whereas Donald Trump is not. There’s a long way – there’s not more than 90 days between now and election day.
Ciaran Jenkins: Frank, you mentioned Pennsylvania, and she could have had the governor there, Josh Shapiro. That’s an absolutely crucial swing state. But there are others, aren’t there? So how is she doing there versus Trump? Because that’s when it really matters, isn’t it?
Frank Luntz: Recent polling on Michigan and Wisconsin, which in the end, form that midwestern block, have her now at least tied or up a per cent or two. Trump had been winning them by a per cent or two. It’s brought back into play Georgia and North Carolina and the two others that people are watching, Nevada and Arizona. It’s not a popular vote election, which I assume your viewers know. It’s an electoral vote election. And those seven states are the only states in play. For Trump to win, he has to win the four states in the West, two states in the West, two states in the South, and only one of the three industrial Midwestern states. So that’s why all this focus is on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And she’s even there. But make no mistake, a vice presidential candidate other than their home state brings absolutely nothing. Even a debate performance and excellent debate performance doesn’t make a difference.
Ciaran Jenkins: They often say, don’t they Frank, ‘do no harm’, in terms of the vice presidential pick. And that’s the key thing. But I want to ask you about Donald Trump and what good or harm he might be doing, because we haven’t seen an awful lot of him. He’s going to appear at a rally in Montana on Friday. Do you think that Republican strategists are sort of keeping him away from the public eye?
Frank Luntz: What Trump should be talking about is issues, not personalities. And they’re not keeping him anywhere because Donald Trump goes where Donald Trump wants to go, for better or worse. He’s his own campaign manager, his own strategist, he’s his own advance person – and he does what he wants to do. He goes off the teleprompter often. She’s going to have another bounce at the convention that’s coming up August 19th to the 22nd. So we’re going to go into Labour Day, the last two months of the campaign and I believe she’s going to have a three point lead by that point, which is tight but significant statistically. And then it’s going to be up to a presidential debate or two to see the difference. Make no mistake, the wind is at her back. She’s got the right tone, the right demeanour, and Trump is flailing. But also on the two key issues, inflation and immigration, Trump has the lead.